As discussed in a recent article, Montreal seems to have become the NHL's rumour destination of choice. If there is a big-name player potentially available, chances are somebody, somewhere, has already connected him to the Canadiens.
The hockey world was caught off guard Friday when reports surfaced that Nikita Kucherov had informed the Tampa Bay Lightning that he would not re-sign with the organization and was requesting a trade. Naturally, it didn't take long for Montreal to enter the conversation.
There have been plenty of mixed messages since the initial reports. Lightning GM Julien BriseBois publicly stated that he has no intention of trading his star winger. Meanwhile, Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reported Saturday that Kucherov has a 10-team trade list and that both Montreal and Toronto are among the destinations he would consider.
That was all it took. Suddenly, the rumour mill was working harder than a Montreal taxi driver during rush hour, with fans, bloggers and podcasters already assembling imaginary trade packages.
Before we start packing Kucherov's bags for Montreal, however, let's take a step back and look at this realistically.
How We Got Here
Reports suggest that the frustration stems largely from the slow pace of contract negotiations between Kucherov and BriseBois. According to the player, money is not part of the equation, but apparently, the issue is the organization's approach to negotiations.
History gives us a little context. We need only look at Steven Stamkos, the longtime Lightning captain, who reportedly received an offer of approximately $3 million annually on an eight-year contract before eventually signing with Nashville for $8 million per season over four years. That was quite a difference of opinion, to put it mildly. Since then, Stamkos had 42 goals last year and sits on 8 goals in 14 games so far this season.
Kucherov reportedly started negotiations looking for somewhere in the neighbourhood of $17 million annually, comparable to Kirill Kaprizov's contract expectations. However, Philadelphia Flyers GM Daniel Briere changed the financial landscape by offering Leo Carlsson an $18 million annual salary through an offer sheet. Anaheim matched it, but the damage to everyone's expectations was already done.
For a two-time Hart Trophy winner and one of the NHL's most productive offensive players, asking for $20 million annually suddenly doesn't seem quite as outrageous. Whether Tampa Bay agrees is another matter entirely.
The Likelihood of Montreal
Even if BriseBois eventually decides that trading Kucherov is unavoidable, it's extremely difficult to believe he would send him to another Atlantic Division team. Trading your superstar to a direct divisional competitor is a little like handing your neighbour the keys to your house and hoping he doesn't touch anything.
Toronto fans and their media will undoubtedly find every reason imaginable to convince themselves that Kucherov is destined for the Maple Leafs. That's what they do. But I wouldn't hold my breath on either Canadian destination via trade, particularly with Tampa Bay having every reason to avoid strengthening a divisional rival.
Frankly, I would put the odds of Kucherov eventually patching things up with Tampa Bay ahead of the odds of BriseBois trading him within the division.
Where Montreal could have a legitimate opportunity is through free agency. As things stand, the Canadiens are projected to have approximately $30 million in salary cap space for the 2027-28 season, with their core players already under contract. That gives Kent Hughes considerable flexibility to pursue a major addition without dismantling the roster.
Of course, Kucherov would have to make it to free agency first, and that's a rather large obstacle. Any team considering trading significant assets for him this season would likely want some assurance that he intends to sign an extension. Otherwise, they would be gambling an awful lot for what could amount to a few months of services.
For now, Montreal fans can enjoy the speculation, but I wouldn't start printing Kucherov jerseys just yet. There is a difference between being on a player's list of acceptable destinations and actually having a realistic chance of acquiring him.
Instead, keep your assets to trade for the team's biggest need, a second line centre. If Kucherov becomes available as a UFA next summer and falls onto Kent Hughes' laps like Chris Kreider did, then go for it if you see a fit.
The Canadiens may be an option, but there are several bridges to cross before this rumour becomes anything more than an entertaining conversation. And right now, that bridge looks an awful lot like it is still sitting in Tampa Bay.
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